Review: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't by Nate Silver
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

I was afraid much of this would be outdated, but, while it obviously talks about issues only until 2012, the information is pretty evergreen. Obviously much has happened since then (Trump, Coronavirus), but most of the information still stands. He mentions how forecasters who don't inform themselves about the issues cannot hope to do well (just looking at charts isn't enough, and you need to understand the human factor).

I also really like his explanation of probabilities and Bayes' theorem, and how they work (and should be taught more in school).

Probably a must-read for people interested in forecasting and prediction in any field.

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