Review: On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything

On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

This was an odd book. The first half was basically all about poker. As someone who doesn't play, most of it was over my head. I found myself powering through just to see if it would lead to anything else. While he does change the subject later on, I can't really say he segues into it. Regardless, some very interesting tidbits, mostly because he is an intelligent, observant person who has personal knowledge of interesting people (SBF and Sam Altman, as well as Peter Thiel and Musk to an extent).

His theory about Rivers and the Village etc. sort of holds water.


https://4201mass.blogspot.com/

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Review: The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't by Nate Silver
My rating: 4 of 5 stars

I was afraid much of this would be outdated, but, while it obviously talks about issues only until 2012, the information is pretty evergreen. Obviously much has happened since then (Trump, Coronavirus), but most of the information still stands. He mentions how forecasters who don't inform themselves about the issues cannot hope to do well (just looking at charts isn't enough, and you need to understand the human factor).

I also really like his explanation of probabilities and Bayes' theorem, and how they work (and should be taught more in school).

Probably a must-read for people interested in forecasting and prediction in any field.

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