Review: The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us about America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny

The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us about America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny by William Strauss
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

Following my trend of reading old books trying to predict the future, this was a pretty good one. 

The first thing that struck me was how wrong the authors seemed to be simply about the 1990s (when they were writing). They saw it as an "unraveling" and a wasted, lost decade in pretty much every sense. Now, decades later, we look back on the 90s with nostalgia, as a time of innocence, growing markets, and optimism. This makes them sound like your average old person bemoaning the times. 

Of course, they go more into detail, with some VERY wrong predictions. At first I was wondering if 9/11 just delayed the entire process, or possibly fast forwarded it (they predicted something big would happen around 2005), but neither scenario really fit. 

Some of the more amusing predictions:

"Early next century young generations will be overwhelmed by age denying old people.  To support their lifestyles in old age boomers will have to impose confiscatory taxes on younger people. This will be enormous deadweight, if it happens. It won't."

It then goes on to basically say Boomers will be very hippy-types and "wisdom keepers" and "healing our beleaguered planet". Well, so much for that. Pretty much all that first part happened exactly as they said it wouldn't. 

"Under (Boomers') leadership, Hollywood will establish standards of taste, while making definitive works of great literature and biography." Uh, ok. Now I'm guessing the authors are boomers and this is all wishful thinking. 

But something interesting:

"From here on, the Boomers will face the unfamiliar challenge of self-restraint. Having grown up feeling GIs (the previous generation) could always step in and fix everything if trouble arose, Boomers have thus far pursued their crusades with a careless intensity. In the 4th turning, GIs will no longer be around as a backstop". 

There may be some truth to this. Once Boomers became the oldest generation in the US, we saw political parties suddenly chasing their own crusades with no self-restraint, and as far as I know we're not stepping on the brakes in terms of social security spending, environment, benefits for the young, etc. To hell with the other generations. 

Also, it does make one realize that different responses work differently in different times. For example, if Lincoln were running now, would he win any elections? Even if he did, would he be remembered the same way he is now? This isn't because the old times were better and the young are dumb, or anything like that. But times do change, and they may well go in cycles. Just not the cycles the authors had in mind. 

I'm curious as to what the authors currently believe and how they've revised their thinking, but I haven't found any updates to this book (or any new books of theirs). 

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